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Let's Encrypt is almost at 200K certs, lets do a betting game
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Let's Encrypt is almost at 200K certs, lets do a betting game

https://letsencrypt.org/stats/

They're now at 182K. They got their first 100K within 7 days after public beta.

Let's do a betting game. Winner gets internet fame. Because of the holidays, I think they'll hit 200K around december 27/28.

Thanked by 2Kris GM2015
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Comments

  • Dec 30/31 would be my bet.

  • Wow, over 50% of the domains are .net

  • @PetaByet said:
    Wow, over 50% of the domains are .net

    Suprisingly they are. I wonder why that would be. It seems to me that .com should be larger.

  • @Raymii said:
    Suprisingly they are. I wonder why that would be. It seems to me that .com should be larger.

    .com owners prefer to pay for their DV/OV/EV certs? That could just be my perception though.

    CloudFlare could also be something that's discouraging people from getting these certs.

  • January 1?

  • 25/26 Dec 2015

  • I'm with you OP.

    December 27/28.

  • december 26th, around noon ;-)

  • perennateperennate Member, Host Rep
    edited December 2015

    PetaByet said: Wow, over 50% of the domains are .net

    Hm, where'd you see that? According to https://plot.ly/~letsencrypt/20/certificates-by-tld/, .net is only 8.06% (even less than .de) while .com is 22.7%.

    I'm going with December 25th between 4pm and midnight UTC.

  • netomxnetomx Moderator, Veteran

    Dec 31

  • Can we also bet on when they will start introducing "premium" plans?

  • perennateperennate Member, Host Rep
    edited December 2015

    Makkesk8 said: Can we also bet on when they will start introducing "premium" plans?

    Eh, what would premium plan possibly do? You can already get free certificates, revoke for free at any time, etc. Also keep in mind that it is run by ISRG, which is a "California public benefit corporation", so there's some laws that apply. (And that it's supported by EFF, and also several commercial sponsors who did not sign up to promote a commercial product.)

    Thanked by 1netomx
  • @Makkesk8 said:
    Can we also bet on when they will start introducing "premium" plans?

    Yeah, as poster above me says, please elaborate on that?

    The only thing i can think of is setting higher rate limits. But, they have to do that anyways if they want to lower the certificate validity to a week or less (because automation)

  • Dec 26 in the morning they'll hit it I guess. I will request another 2 as well, both for .de domains by the way :)

  • @perennate said:
    Eh, what would premium plan possibly do? You can already get free certificates, revoke for free at any time, etc. Also keep in mind that it is run by ISRG, which is a "California public benefit corporation", so there's some laws that apply. (And that it's supported by EFF, and also several commercial sponsors who did not sign up to promote a commercial product.)
    @Raymii said:
    The only thing i can think of is setting higher rate limits. But, they have to do that anyways if they want to lower the certificate validity to a week or less (because automation)

    Obviously I was trying to be funny. Maybe I should state that for the non logical users in this forum. I'm Sorry.

  • bogdangbogdang Member
    edited December 2015

    I bet it will happen after 1st of January. Sysadmins are busy enjoying their Christmas presents

  • perennateperennate Member, Host Rep

    bogdang said: I bet it will happen after 1st of January. Sysadmins are busy enjoying their Christmas presents

    Sysadmins don't get any Christmas presents.

  • I bet they'll achieve it around 25th-27th.

  • PetaByet said: .com owners prefer to pay for their DV/OV/EV certs?

    An also .com owners already had a certificate.

  • @PetaByet said:
    Wow, over 50% of the domains are .net

    .net 8.6%
    .com 22.7%

  • WilliamWilliam Member
    edited December 2015

    perennate said: Also keep in mind that it is run by ISRG, which is a "California public benefit corporation", so there's some laws that apply. (And that it's supported by EFF, and also several commercial sponsors who did not sign up to promote a commercial product.)

    Not relevant, as they do not sell any product for money currently and have no physical assets relevant to the key generation (except a hardware RNG and key store, worth maybe 100EUR combined) they can - fully legal and without anyone having anything to complain - move all operations from the almost-non-profit (it is NOT a non profit!) to any corp, anywhere they want, and do anything with it at any time.

    Thanked by 1perennate
  • perennateperennate Member, Host Rep
    edited December 2015

    @William well, it was a sidenote, but that's a good point about the physical assets; although I think it is still relevant. They have approximately $3 million in cash from corporate sponsorships, throwing that away before they have a chance to spend it seems pretty silly. But of course you're right, it's not the most important thing, e.g. the board having diverse set of members who aren't going to want to do something stupid like move to corporate entity is more relevant.

    Edit: also it IS non profit in the sense that it is tax-exempt under 501(c)(3) (meaning there are exemption requirements -- https://www.irs.gov/Charities-&-Non-Profits/Charitable-Organizations/Exemption-Requirements-Section-501(c)(3)-Organizations); that's the usual definition in the US. California mutual benefit corporation is a bit different (and does not satisfy 501(c)(3) requirements), but ISRG is a California public benefit corporation. But anyway this is a silly discussion.

    Edit2: also I imagine there would be some difficulties in transferring the root certificate to a new entity.

  • perennateperennate Member, Host Rep
    edited December 2015

    BTW what is the logic of the people who bet on 30th / 31st? It doesn't appear to be slowing down over the weekends; and you'd need it to fall from 7K/day to 1K/day for the next seven days to be correct... perhaps you have some inside information that we don't? :)

  • OVH just became a platinum sponsor, so you may see them making an offering soon which will really propel things.

    Thanked by 1netomx
  • 27/28 Dec

  • 27th AEST heh

  • perennateperennate Member, Host Rep
    edited December 2015

    yomero said: An also .com owners already had a certificate.

    Let's Encrypt is working perfectly for me so far. Swapped out my certificates that had between four months and 1.5 yrs left, and set up a cron job for auto renewal. (for renewing: this and this may be helpful).

    The per-domain rate limit is annoying though.

  • @perennate said:
    Sysadmins don't get any Christmas presents.

    Core router is down... we'll need you to come in and fix it... Merry Christmas.

    Thanked by 3perennate Kris netomx
  • December 26 and they're at 195.55K certs. My guess might be to late...

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