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When will IPv4 IP addresses be exhausted?

When will IPv4 IP addresses be exhausted?

How long will you be consumed in years? :)

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  • YuraYura Member

    @ZiriusPH said: is there an end to infinity?

    4,294,967,296 is your answer.

  • @Yura said:

    @ZiriusPH said: is there an end to infinity?

    4,294,967,296 is your answer.

    u caught me

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  • hanidoya said: How long will you be consumed in years? :)

    I got some meat on my bones, but it's probably pretty gristly by now. Still, I think a strong eater or a small family could consume me in way less than a year.

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  • elgselgs Member
    edited January 11

    I feel it will be much sooner than we think. Think about the floppy disks, CD/DVD ROMs just became irrelevant all in a sudden, when the replacing technology is penetrated. When one day we suddenly realize that our homes, offices, phones all support IPv6, and all in a sudden we get the freedom of owning a practically unlimited address space, why do we still need IPv4 then? Oh, right, maybe some legacy networks.

  • @hanidoya said: How long will you be consumed in years? :)

    IPv4 will be exhausted on the 13th of January 2017 at 4:56PM EST.

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  • ClouviderClouvider Member, Provider

    @hanidoya said: How long will you be consumed in years? :)

    That depends. What do you mean by consumed?

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  • qpsqps Member, Provider

    Move to an AFRINIC country?

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  • I've seen people using APNIC IPs in the United States before

  • @ethancedrik said: I've seen people using APNIC IPs in the United States before

    Only people whose place of birth in the US has been challenged? Or can everybody do that?

  • @southy said:

    @ethancedrik said: I've seen people using APNIC IPs in the United States before

    Only people whose place of birth in the US has been challenged? Or can everybody do that?

    As far as I'm aware you have to have a server in that region, but there are hosting companies like Fiberdrop, there used to be one called XIPE as well that are US based and host servers in America but have APNIC IPs

    http://bgp.he.net/AS395033#_prefixes For example there's one

  • Hi, That was a joke. But anyway: I think you mis-quoted me: I didn't write that.

  • LiteServerLiteServer Member, Provider

    There is only one RIR left with plenty of IPv4 space and that is Afrinic. All others are running on a limited address pool, and are usually assigning only small assignments like a /22 max per LIR.
    So is the IPv4 pool empty, well.. yes and no :-). The time everyone could get a /19 or larger has ended several years ago.
    I expect IPv4 will remain 'hot' for at least the next years, even with prices going skyhigh - there will always be some kind of company selling IPv4 space. The hosting companies with the biggest bank account will still be able to increase their IPv4 pool.
    Most hosting companies still have plenty of IPv4 space left to survive a while.

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  • MicrolinuxMicrolinux Member
    edited January 12

    @elgs said: why do we still need IPv4 then? Oh, right, maybe some legacy networks.

    Because the majority of networks are not fully IPv6 ready, nor will they be any time soon. Too many people seem to think IPv6 readness involves flipping a switch and then washing your hands.

    IPv6 becomes attractive when lost revenue due a lack of IPv6 exceeds the cost of implementing IPv6. That's a long way off for most entities.

  • AmfyAmfy Member

    elgs said: I feel it will be much sooner than we think. Think about the floppy disks, CD/DVD ROMs just became irrelevant all in a sudden, when the replacing technology is penetrated. When one day we suddenly realize that our homes, offices, phones all support IPv6, and all in a sudden we get the freedom of owning a practically unlimited address space, why do we still need IPv4 then? Oh, right, maybe some legacy networks.

    I doubt so. You can't compare IPv4 to the technologies you stated at all. IP is a lot more connected.

    If you ask me we're talking 10-15 yrs

  • stefemanstefeman Member
    edited January 13

    I think it will be a reverse progress instead. ISPs will start assigning same public IPs to multiple people at the same time and just NAT traffic down to the customers at higher level.

    This would allow them to serve the ever increasing population of subscribers with smaller amounts of IPs and the remaining freed IP ranges would be re-assigned to new ISPs and hosting companies/business.

    Meanwhile unrelated companies like Ford would lose their large subnets and undeveloped regions like africa would have some of their allocated IPs relocated to hotspots like Asia that is currently booming and running out of IPs for the new ISPs.

    I thing people will choose to delay the inevitable for as long as they can.

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  • @stefeman said: I think it will be a reverse progress instead. ISPs will start assigning same public IPs to multiple people at the same time and just NAT traffic down to the customers at higher level.

    This would allow them to serve the ever increasing population of subscribers with smaller amounts of IPs and the remaining freed IP ranges would be re-assigned to new ISPs and hosting companies/business.

    Meanwhile unrelated companies like Ford would lose their large subnets and undeveloped regions like africa would have some of their allocated IPs relocated to hotspots like Asia that is currently booming and running out of IPs for the new ISPs.

    I thing people will choose to delay the inevitable for as long as they can.

    I will nevar use IPv6. It's nice to have, but as long as my ISP has no IPv6, I'll be reaping the benefits of IPv4.

    At least I can memorize a few IPv4 addresses, whereas IPv6 is too arcane and long for that

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  • WebProjectWebProject Member, Provider
    edited January 13

    Its plenty (/8) stashed by some companies like Ford, GE, HP, Apple, CSC, US Postal service, etc without full usage.

    US Postal service - I don't think they do use full of /16, but do hold /8

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  • FranciscoFrancisco Top Provider

    @WebProject said: Its plenty (/8) stashed by some companies like Ford, GE, HP, Apple, CSC, US Postal service, etc without full usage.

    US Postal service - I don't think they do use full of /16, but do hold /8

    From what I was hearing from someone that has worked at their plants, Ford does use their space but the majority of it is on their own internal network. You'll see terminals with a big piece of tape along the top with its IP address from the Ford /8.

    If it suddenly became globally routed it would make a mess and renumbering isn't an option due to the work involved. Besides, why would they?

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  • ethancedrikethancedrik Member
    edited January 13

    Apple has their /8 fully publicly routed, but I don't think it's used for much, here it is if you want to look at it http://bgp.he.net/net/17.0.0.0/8#_dns

    The rest of their IP addresses (a lot) http://bgp.he.net/AS714#_prefixes

  • WebProjectWebProject Member, Provider
    edited January 13

    the justification is strict of IPv4 use for hosting industry, why some corp just misuse their allocation? simply hold IPv4 addresses without any usage.

  • qpsqps Member, Provider
    edited January 13

    Francisco said: Ford does use their space but the majority of it is on their own internal network

    Having worked for Ford, I can attest to this.

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  • FranciscoFrancisco Top Provider

    @WebProject said: the justification is strict of IPv4 use for hosting industry, why some corp just misuse their allocation? simply hold IPv4 addresses without any usage.

    Well for one they don't abide by the same rules as the rest of us because they got in when the getting was good. There's plenty of people with legacy space that don't have to abide by ARIN's terms, pricing, etc.

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  • The large IP block owners would all sell, you just have to offer them a big enough chunk of money.

    This chart is looking more healthy nowadays https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html

    Thanked by 1sin
  • sinsin Member

    ricardo said: This chart is looking more healthy nowadays

    Yup, 17% of Google searches via ipv6-enabled users is quite a bit.

    The only server/vps I had left that didn't have ipv6 was my OVH SSD VPSes and they got assigned an ipv6 address today.

  • @ricardo said: The large IP block owners would all sell, you just have to offer them a big enough chunk of money.

    I believe that is just the point: there is enough IPv4 space - in theory. None of Ford's industrial robots need to have a public IP if they aren't publically routed (and there is no reason why they should be and much reason why they shouldn't). Same goes for the vast majority of spaces in the other old /8. Not all, but most.

    So in the end, this is going to be a matter of the price: - will someone offer Ford enough money to make them set up a project "renumbering"? - paying this price will only be justified if introducing IPv6 is even more expensive.

    I believe it's still too early to call this, probably depending on situation both could be happening. In the end there is no reason why anyone aside hosting industry should have large (!) chunks of IPv4 - any other business such as Ford or any of the others mentioned above could well do with way smaller segments and NAT for the big numbers of systems.

    At least, this is "pre-IoT-logic". With IoT in the picture, probably things are bit different but then new classes of devices can much easier go to IPv6 from the beginning on.

    IMHO.

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  • @stefeman said: I think it will be a reverse progress instead. ISPs will start assigning same public IPs to multiple people at the same time and just NAT traffic down to the customers at higher level.

    This would allow them to serve the ever increasing population of subscribers with smaller amounts of IPs and the remaining freed IP ranges would be re-assigned to new ISPs and hosting companies/business.

    Meanwhile unrelated companies like Ford would lose their large subnets and undeveloped regions like africa would have some of their allocated IPs relocated to hotspots like Asia that is currently booming and running out of IPs for the new ISPs.

    I thing people will choose to delay the inevitable for as long as they can.

    I agree that there's going to be pressure to run CGN across a lot of ISP (this is already how most mobile networks work), but I think there will be backlash, due to things like:

    http://mailman.nanog.org/pipermail/nanog/2016-September/087961.html

    Since CGN makes it significantly harder to isolate bad actors from legit users, I'd bet there's going to be a lot of services like PSN that just reject all traffic from the public IP, and you're going to get people realize how much hidden pain there is staying with NATed IPv4.

    It's pretty interesting listening to the network engineers discuss pain points around IPv6 though:

    http://mailman.nanog.org/pipermail/nanog/2016-July/086881.html

  • woothostingwoothosting Member, Provider

    @ricardo said: The large IP block owners would all sell, you just have to offer them a big enough chunk of money.

    This chart is looking more healthy nowadays https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html

    Thanks for sharing the statistics link! I'm glad to see IPv6 adoption increasing (at least among Google users, which can speak for a lot).

  • Anyone on Comcast Cable in the US gets like 3 IPv6s I think

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  • ethancedrik said: Anyone on Comcast Cable in the US gets like 3 IPv6s I think

    generous

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  • ethancedrik said: Anyone on Comcast Cable in the US gets like 3 IPv6s I think

    Ole_Juul said: generous

    image

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  • qpsqps Member, Provider

    southy said: I believe that is just the point: there is enough IPv4 space - in theory. None of Ford's industrial robots need to have a public IP if they aren't publically routed (and there is no reason why they should be and much reason why they shouldn't). Same goes for the vast majority of spaces in the other old /8. Not all, but most.

    The issue is that Ford interfaces with hundreds if not thousands of suppliers. The reason they use their own /8 for their internal IP addresses is so that there are not IP conflicts between Ford and their suppliers with RFC 1918 space usage. It would take a very, very large financial incentive to get them to consider moving to RFC 1918 and then having to deal with conflicts with suppliers.

  • rm_rm_ Member

    ethancedrik said: Anyone on Comcast Cable in the US gets like 3 IPv6s I think

    That's not correct, at Comcast you get up to a /60 subnet of IPv6.

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  • elgselgs Member
    edited January 14

    @rm_ said:

    ethancedrik said: Anyone on Comcast Cable in the US gets like 3 IPv6s I think

    That's not correct, at Comcast you get up to a /60 subnet of IPv6.

    Just checked my router, I even got a /56 on my home router from Cox.

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